Price shock in Central and Northern Norway winter 2026 – why electricity prices surged

Hi, I'm Filip, founder of Viddakraft. The winter of 2026 has brought a historic price shock: electricity prices in Central Norway (NO3) and Northern Norway (NO4) have surged dramatically. In this article, I explain what's happening, why it's happening - and what it means for you as a customer.

What do the electricity prices show in January and February 2026?

Throughout 2025, electricity prices in NO3 and NO4 were low - often between 0 and 0,50 kr/kWh (excl. VAT). It was common to see daily prices below 0,10 kr/kWh in Northern Norway. This had been the case for many years, and many customers in these regions were used to cheap electricity.

From January 2026, the picture changed dramatically. Daily average prices in NO3 rose to 1,00-1,50 kr/kWh (excl. VAT) - almost at the same level as Oslo (NO1), Kristiansand (NO2) and Bergen (NO5). Northern Norway (NO4) also rose sharply, with daily prices regularly reaching 0,50-1,50 kr/kWh (excl. VAT).

Price comparison - January (average prices incl. VAT, except NO4 which is VAT-exempt):

Price zone	January 2026	January 2025	Change
NO1 - Eastern Norway	~1,59 kr/kWh	~0,94 kr/kWh	+69%
NO2 - Southern Norway	~1,54 kr/kWh	~0,97 kr/kWh	+58%
NO3 - Central Norway	~1,49 kr/kWh	~0,35 kr/kWh	+326%
NO4 - Northern Norway (excl. VAT)	~0,83 kr/kWh	~0,11 kr/kWh	+662%
NO5 - Western Norway	~1,56 kr/kWh	~0,78 kr/kWh	+100%

Why have prices risen so much?

There are mainly two reasons - one structural and one acute.

Reason 1: New 420 kV power line across the Sognefjord (Aurland-Sogndal)

On October 2, 2025, Statnett (Norway's transmission system operator) commissioned a new 420 kV power line between Aurland and Sogndal in Western Norway. The old line operated at 300 kV. The new line is part of what the Norwegian media have called the "monster cable" and cost between NOK 2.4 and 2.7 billion.

This line completed Norway's first continuous 420 kV grid from Finnmark in the far north to Agder in the south. This means electricity can now flow much more freely between north and south. For comparison: Sweden has eight such high-voltage connections between north and south - Norway had zero before this line went into operation.

What does this mean in practice? When prices are high in the south, more electricity can be transferred from north to south. This reduces price differences but makes electricity more expensive where it was previously cheap. Statnett's own analysts stated in advance that the line would "remove a significant bottleneck" and lead to smaller price differences between NO3 and the southern zones.

Analysts from Volue Insight estimated that the line would raise NO3 prices by 0,15-0,45 kr/kWh depending on conditions.

Reason 2: Extreme winter - cold, no wind, and drought

At the same time, a Siberian high-pressure system settled over the entire Nordic region around New Year 2025/2026. The effects:

Extreme cold - Temperatures in Trøndelag ran about 5°C below normal, in Northern Norway 6°C below. Røros recorded −35.6°C, Folldal −39.3°C. January 2026 set electricity consumption records across Norway.
Near zero wind - Norwegian wind power production fell about 30% below seasonal norms. Icing on turbines made the situation worse.
Drought - Precipitation in January was only about one-third of normal. NVE (the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate) declared a "winter drought" along the coast from Sørlandet to Nordland.

The result? Record-high demand combined with low production - and a new grid that allowed high southern prices to spread northward.

Is this a permanent change?

The new 420 kV line is permanent. It will not be removed. This means NO3 will have permanently higher prices than what customers were used to. Analysts estimate a permanent price uplift of 0,15-0,20 kr/kWh for NO3 compared to historical levels.

However, January and February 2026 were also extremely elevated due to weather conditions. Prices will likely fall back towards 0,90-1,00 kr/kWh in NO3 during spring and summer, and even lower in NO4.

There are also several new grid projects under construction - including Surna-Viklandet and Åfjord-Snilldal - which will further increase transmission capacity in Central Norway when completed. The trend is clear: the price gap between northern and southern Norway will continue to narrow over time.

What does this mean for Norgespris?

Norgespris is a government scheme guaranteeing a fixed price of 0,50 kr/kWh incl. VAT (0,40 kr excl. VAT). In January 2026, spot prices in NO3 exceeded this threshold in 97% of hours. This means Norgespris suddenly became very profitable for customers in Central Norway - which was not the case through most of 2025.

For customers in Northern Norway (NO4), the situation is more uncertain. Summer prices in NO4 may still drop below 0,40 kr/kWh, meaning you could end up paying more than the spot price during parts of the year. At the same time, the winter of 2026 has shown that extreme prices can also hit the north.

You can read more about Norgespris and Strømstøtte in our articles: Norgespris | Strømstøtte (Electricity Subsidy).

Summary

Electricity prices in NO3 and NO4 have risen dramatically in winter 2026.
The main reason is the new 420 kV Aurland-Sogndal power line, which connects north and south more tightly.
Extremely cold, windless and dry weather amplified the effect significantly.
The change is partly permanent - NO3 will likely never return to the very low prices seen in recent years.
Norgespris has become more attractive for customers in Central Norway.

This article is purely informational. If you have any questions, feel free to contact us.

Best regards,
Filip from Viddakraft